derivation probability

Context? I Don't Have Time for That!

2009-10-04T11:50:00.001+01:00

The Sunday Express has this article today. And we appear to be back into "cherry pick stuff to make a story 'cause we need to sell papers" territory. Either that or just very poor reporting.

Written by Lucy Johnston, the title of the piece is Jab 'As Deadly As The Cancer'. Don't hold back will you, Lucy?

The article opens with some claims attributed to Dr Diane Harper including the fact that a similar vaccine (Gardasil) used in America has been associated with 32 deaths. What the article does not tell us however, is that these 32 deaths are from 23 million doses of Gardasil. It is not clear if all 32 deaths are the result of Gardasil but even if they are the number is miniscule. Steven Novella has a (as usual) good post about this here.

Then immediately after;

Her comments follow the death of 14-year-old Natalie Morton, who collapsed an hour after receiving the jab at school last week.

Of course, why bother highlighting the fact that a post mortem has revealed that Natalie Morton died from cancer. No, no, no. That wouldn't do. Not here. No, we need to put that in later, a few paragraphs further down. You know, away from this bit.

Ok, so we've scared the pants off the readers with the title and we've mentioned some deaths from a similar vaccine but neglected to inform the reader of the full statistical impact of these. So far so tabloid.

They quote Dr Harper again;

Dr Harper, of the University of Missouri-Kansas, said she believed the risks – “small but real” – could be worse than the risk of developing cancer itself.

And? All medical interventions have some risk. Even asprin. These are all real. And the best vaccines should have a small risk. The ones that have a big risk are not so good.

So now we're far enough down the piece to throw in Natalie's death being due to cancer. But we can't just put it in as it is, no, no, no. That doesn't fit in with our 'vaccines are bad' story at all. No, better put a dissenting voice in. Oh, and look, here comes one now, Dr Richard Halvorsen.

Post mortem results last week blamed Natalie’s death on a rare cancer but Dr Richard Halvorsen, author of The Truth About Vaccines, said: “One minute Natalie is an apparently healthy girl, she has the vaccine and within two hours she is dead.

I have not read his book so can't comment on whether it is anti-vax or not but Natalie was 'an apparently healthy girl'. She had undiagnosed cancer which (with hindsight) was the real cause of her death. And of course 'apparently healthy' does not mean healthy.

We are told she had a terrible cancer inside her that killed her but this is implausible.

Yes, of course. No one gets cancer these days. Totally implausible. You'll be telling me homeopathy and acupuncture work next. Oh, wait...

“If you have cancer you have symptoms. Clearly public health doctors are desperate to turn the debate away from the vaccine as a possible cause.”

Not always noticeable or clear symptoms though. And the doctors are not desperate, just trying to be, you know, factual.

So how do we scare people a bit more? We've got no more deaths to go on. Aha...

Lisa Wickendon, 13, of Chobham, Surrey, developed muscle weakness in her legs after her third dose of vaccine last March, leaving her unable to walk.

When hospital tests came back normal, doctors said her symptoms were in her mind and referred her to a mental health team.

However, a consultant psychiatrist said her mental health was sound and her symptoms had “a strong relationship to receiving the vaccine”.

Maybe this was a side effect, maybe not. But let's look at the Cervarix information sheet for side effects. Hmmmm....muscle weakness, check. Maybe the first doctor was wrong. Even if he was, muscle weakness is a known side effect.

Her mother Elizabeth, a secretary, said: “She couldn’t walk or see properly. She couldn’t make those things up.”

Yes she could, maybe not consciously. The mind is a powerful thing. Maybe all the news scare stories got to her and coupled with the muscle weakness made her panic. If she couldn't see properly it may be a new side effect. I assume Lisa is ok now, the article (surprisingly?) doesn't say. Surely we can't have people thinking the side effects went away after a bit leaving no lasting damage, eh?

Oh, and comments are turned off on the article. Wouldn't want a serious debate now would we? You know, one that involves that pesky context.

Moving House

2009-08-25T19:56:00.000+01:00

I am now here:

http://derivationprobability.tumblr.com/

as I think it suits me better. Maybe.

Streamlining

2009-08-23T16:27:00.000+01:00

Ok, so I'm a bad blogger. I blog infrequently and probably don't add much that isn't already being said better by other people.

So I am going to stick to what I know. Bad jokes and song lyrics. Stay tuned.

Chiropractic Dumpty

2009-08-22T14:46:00.000+01:00

Nursery rhymes were often used to get a point across or served as a riddle. Maybe we should update some. Here's my first.

Chiropractic Dumpty set out his stall,

Chiropractic Dumpty had a great fall.

For all the clever bloggers,

And all the science men,

Picked holes in his evidence, again and again.

Science is all around

2009-07-24T17:34:00.000+01:00

Another day, another song. This time its a more general sciencey song. The tune is Love is all Around by The Troggs. These lyrics were written to the Wet Wet Wet version which some may consider heresy.

Science Is All Around

I feel it in my phalanges

I feel it in my genome

Science is all around me

And so the evidence grows

It's written in the textbooks

It's everywhere I go

So if your theory holds up

Come on and let us know

You know I'll test it, I always will

My minds made up by the evidence I see

There's no anomaly, there'll be a trend

Cause on my data you can depend

I see your method before me

As I wipe the chalk board

I kinda get to thinking

Of all the facts you hoard

You gave your findings to me and I gave mine to you

Because we get good science when we peer review

You know I'll test it, I always will

My minds made up by the evidence I see

There's no anomaly, there'll be a trend

Cause on my data you can depend

Got to keep science moving

It's written in the textbooks

Oh it's everywhere I move

So if your theory holds up, holds up

Come on and let it prove

Come on and let it

Come on and let it prove

Let it prove

Come on and let it

Come on and let it prove

Let it prove

Come on and let it prove

Let it prove

Come on and let it prove

Let it prove

Voodoo Bollocks

2009-07-18T11:42:00.000+01:00

Whilst skimming the interwebs last week I came across this site (via Skepchick).

I suppose I should not be surprised by this kind of stuff by now, and it still kinda boggles my mind that people can fall for crap like this. The Quantum Jumping site uses the usual tricks to sucker people in, using the word "quantum" for a start, quotes from satisfied customers, not actually saying what Quantum Jumping is and a lot of bollocks.

So I fired up Gimpshop and made what I consider to be a more accurate version here.

My Old Man's A TAM Man

2009-07-07T12:26:00.000+01:00

The Amazing Meeting 7 kicks off in Vegas later this week and though I haven't yet been to a TAM (and can't make TAM London unfortunately) I have created a little tribute to it below.

The song should be sung to the tune of My Old Man's A Dustman by Lonnie Donegan.

Oh, and apologies for the poor jokes. I'm going to say they're in the style of the original...ahem.

My Old Man's A TAM Man

Now here's a little conference,

To see it is a must.

With talks about pseudo-science

From sources we can trust.

Some say it costs a fortune,

Others say they're skint.

But my old man is going,

He couldn't bear it if he didn't.

Oh, my old man's a TAM man,

He's into science and all that,

He's going off to Vegas

To listen to freethinkers chat.

He'll get to see Stephen Bauer

And writer producer Bill Prady.

He's got a soft spot and cares a lot

Of the talk by James Randi.

Some folks'll watch Penn & Teller,

And some Jennifer Ouellette,

Some hanker for Doctor Steve Novella,

And Phil Plait's there don't forget.

Now also there is Ray Hall,

And Daniel "Chip" Denman.

These people have gone and so agreed

To all be there at TAM.

Oh, my old man's a TAM man,

He's into science and all that,

He's going off to Vegas

To listen to freethinkers chat.

I say, I say, Les

Yes?

I, er, I got rid of my chiropractor.

Oh, really? Why was that?

He was a right pain in the neck.

Speaking there is Dean Cameron,

And that man D. J. Grothe.

Alison Smith will show up too,

And software engineer Tim Farley.

I said, "'Ere, hang on, Dad,

You once said psychics were all fine."

He said " Well, I was wrong back then

The fault it was all mine."

Oi! My old man's a TAM man,

He's into science and all that,

He's going off to Vegas

To listen to freethinkers chat.

I say, I say, I say!

Yes?

A homeopath was told laughter is the best medicine.

Really, what did he say?

He disagreed. He thought a smirk was more effective.

Now also on the event bill,

At TAM 7 this year,

Is George Hrab the songwriter,

Composer, and singer,

Producer, podcaster and skeptic.

He really does all of these.

He's performed for President Clinton,

But I hope not on his knees.

Oi! My old man's a TAM man,

He's into science and all that,

He's going off to Vegas

To listen to freethinkers chat.

I say, I say, I say!

Not again!

I got abducted by aliens last week.

How do you know they were aliens?

'Cos they had no visa's.

My dad is getting very excited

As he don't want to miss

Mythbuster Adam Savage

And that Jamy Ian Swiss.

Or Joseph A. Albietz the third

Or MD Harriet Hall,

And Lieutenant Colonel. Hal Bidlack

And I don't think I've covered them all.

Oh my old man's a TAM man,

He's into science and all that,

He's going off to Vegas

To listen to freethinkers chat.

Next time I'll have to go with him,

To not do would be just mad.

It would be great to be just me

And my lovely dear old dad.

Oprah

2009-06-26T19:35:00.000+01:00

A song about Oprah Winfrey. And if you're reading this, Oprah -- sort yourself out, lass.

Sung to the tune of Lola by The Kinks

Oprah

I saw her on a set performing her mojo.

Telling you how to abstain from processed foods and make Granola.

G-r-a-n ola.

She has a magazine and she has a show

Produced by Harpo, and backwards her name is Oprah.

O-p-r-a-h Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

Well I'm not the world's most intellectual guy

But when she gave a show to that Jenny gal,

Oh, my! Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

Well I could be dumb but I can't understand

Why she lets antivaxxers give their commands

On her show-a. O-o-o-o Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

Well, we can campaign and fight all we like,

Her show to rid of this sad blight.

But the problem is she's a billionaire

And right now doesn't really seem to care.

Well I'm not going to Live My Best Life

And The Secret I really despise being peddled by Oprah.

O-o-o-o Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

I wish she would say,

"I was wrong before,

I won't do this no more."

I'm begging, Oprah please,

Don't make me swear at my tv.

And that's not all I wanted to say.

Send Somers and her hormones on their way, oh Oprah.

O-o-o-o Oprah.

Now you've given Doctor Oz his own bloody show,

And backed by that nit Chopra at the Huff Po, Oprah.

O-o-o-o Oprah.

Well I have a bone to pick with you

For peddling all of this ridiculous woo.

Your show is watched by millions of people

Most of whom are ready and willing to believe you.

Well I'm not the world's most observant bod

But I know what I got and I'll tell you what

You are Oprah.

O-o-o-o Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah O-o-o-o Oprah.

Piffling Perfumery

2009-06-24T19:46:00.000+01:00

After Crispian Jago's brilliant Richard Dawkins perfume here, I thought I'd pay homage with my own below. Unfortunately he's beaten me to the draw with his own funnier follow up.

BCA

2009-06-21T19:24:00.000+01:00

In light of the recent BCA announcement that they have a 'plethora' of evidence for chiropractic and the resulting demolition of this list from Jack of Kent, Gimpy, Ministry of Truth, Evidence Matters and a few others, find below a song.

The song should be sung to the tune of YMCA by The Village People.

BCA

Now then, you said we had no evidence.

We said, here then, we would like to announce,

We said, we have, a plethora for acceptance.

Oh, no need to be so nasty.

Now then, there's twenty nine we can show.

We said, so there, let's see if you can go

And refute all these. We're so confident they'll give you

Many ways to get in trouble.

It's not fun now at the B-C-A.

These have every best chance we can use to employ,

To provide info you cannot destroy...

It's not fun now at the B-C-A.

We threw in our own code, it seemed a good idea,

But it may bite us in the rear...

So then, we put in roundabout three

Papers, which were, really about osteopathy

And oh, one that, was about medical conduct

And the mis-rep-re-sen-ta-tion

Of research. Yes we know, it's irony.

And so, we then, sat on the balcony.

Thinking to ourselves, we're the B-C-A.

No proof we have to show today.

It's not fun now at the B-C-A.

So we put in Klougart et al, lacking binding and a control.

And not assessed against placebo.

It's not fun now at the B-C-A.

We used Mercer and Nook, but it's clear if you look

The evidence seriously cannot be took.

Not good. So we went and then chose

Wilberg, which was, a bit better than those.

And we ignored Olafsdottir because

We cherry picked to suit our cause.

That's when we picked another paper

And it, was all we could do to scrape it

Together. But we put it in anyway.

And we hoped it would keep them at bay.

It's not fun now at the B-C-A.

We are really struggling with no evidence to deploy.

We have tried all of our decoys.

B-C-A. You'll find trouble at the B-C-A.

For win, for lose, we have decided to choose

To try to confound, but now we may really lose.

B-C-A. You'll find trouble at the B-C-A.

Not good, not good. We've shot our own feet.

Not good, not good. We should not have tried to cheat.

B-C-A. I'm leaving the B-C-A.

I'm Diluting

2009-06-16T13:49:00.000+01:00

To celebrate (ahem) National Homeopathy Week, here's a little song.

Sing to the tune of Pretty Woman by Roy Orbison.

I'm Diluting

I'm diluting, up to 30C.

I'm diluting, it's homeopathy.

I'm diluting.

It won't relieve you, from your bad tooth.

It's not science and that's the truth.

Fancy.

I'm diluting, up to 60C.

I'm diluting, molecules I cannot see.

I'm diluting.

Making it as safe as it can be.

Are you kooky just like me?

Wow.

I'm diluting, to stop that bile.

I'm diluting, it takes a while.

I'm diluting, give your money to me.

I'm diluting, shake, shake, shake.

I'm diluting, all the day.

I'm diluting, say you'll imbibe from me.

'Cause I need you, to believe my rite.

Come treat your baby, I promise it's alright.

I'm succussing, my dilution's high.

I'm succussing, I don't know why.

I'm succussing, be ready today... okay.

I'll bump it to 200C, okay?

I guess water memory is the key

For the solution being weak as pee.

What do I think?

Is there a limit to this thing?

Yeah, there's a limit to this thing.

Oh, yeah, Avogadro.

Simon Singhs

2009-06-15T10:21:00.000+01:00

Just a song to show my support to Simon Singh in his lawsuit against the BCA and English libel law.

I would have sung it but I can't sing at all - my voice sounds like a monotone tuneless drunk. Anyone want to sing it?

It should be sung to the (shortened) tune of American Pie by Don McLean. I used the Weird Al version myself.

This Simon Guy

A short, short time ago...

A writer named Simon Singh

Was sued by the BCA

For questioning claims they were plying

That chiropractic treats prolonged crying

And, strangely, ear infections so they say.

The Guardian's reply was if you wish,

Write a response for us to publish.

The BCA refused to.

And said it's not you we're gonna sue.

It's that Simon guy we require

For defamation we will go and hire

A lawyer who will not tire.

An apology we do desire.

So my, my, our Simon the guy.

It may deflate yer someday later

But don't break down and cry.

We're all behind you and there's a simple reason why,

Because our law has gone badly awry.

Our law has gone badly awry.

It's come to something when you can't

Freely criticize or have a rant

Without fear of being sued.

And having to be the one to prove

That your statement was indeed all true

Instead of their unsubstantiated view.

Well we know that you are in the right.

And we'll back you in this awful fight.

Which will affect not only you

So we signed a petition or two.

And over the internet a rumbling was heard.

As freethinkers all over said this is absurd.

So into action they were spurred.

The day Simon was sued.

We started thinking.

My, my, our Simon the guy.

It may deflate yer someday later

But don't break down and cry.

We're all behind you and there's a simple reason why,

Because our law has gone badly awry.

Our law has gone badly awry.

Now he finally got to go to court.

For a preliminary that was oh so short

And ended in a tragedy.

The judge ruled there was a case to hear

Of the BCA promoting with good cheer

Bogus treatments for you and for me.

Oh, the BCA was glad of course.

Where was the balance in the courts?

They threw the onus on Singh.

Oh, proof he would need to bring

To show the dishonesty of the Association,

To avoid paying them compensation

And bring about a cessation.

He's still being sued by them.

We started thinking.

My, my, our Simon the guy.

It may deflate yer someday later

But don't break down and cry.

We're all behind you and there's a simple reason why,

Because our law has gone badly awry.

Our law has gone badly awry.

It's the law that's wrong you see,

Allowing the rich to go and bully

Without evidence of their own.

Science should be questioned as we all know,

But the libel laws do not allow

For all scientific criticism to be known.

And in the pubs: the scientists screamed,

The skeptics cried, and the lawmen steamed.

And angry words were spoken;

About English law being broken.

Where has our legal system gone?

To the dogs if this case you go upon.

So Simon continues to fight on.

He's still being sued by the BCA.

We started thinking.

My, my, our Simon the guy.

It may deflate yer someday later

But don't break down and cry.

We're all behind you and there's a simple reason why,

Because our law has gone badly awry.

Our law has gone badly awry.

We started thinking.

My, my, our Simon the guy.

It may deflate yer someday later

But don't break down and cry.

We're all behind you and there's a simple reason why,

Because our law has gone badly awry.

2009-06-14T18:18:00.000+01:00

If God is your answer to everything, crosswords must be quite boring.

ACROSS

2. You may know Him as Allah or Yahweh.

3. All powerful being.

4. Causes earthquakes. And floods.

5. Watches over you always.

6. Gave us morals.

DOWN

1. Where the universe came from.

2. Force that makes different creatures.

3. Likes to carve faces into objects.

4. Bananas fit nicely in the hand because of ...

5. What Adam & Eve had to do when they ate that apple.